Boost Your Football Predictions Using The Footy Forecast Technique
Boost Your Football Predictions is a collection of articles that define some popular and also well utilised analytical methods that will assist you to make even more enlightened bets. Each of the methods has its own benefits as well as drawbacks. Utilising each one of them individually will help to increase your possibilities of winning, but putting them together they will prove invaluable in your battle to beat the bookies. In each post we will describe in detail just how that method functions giving you enough information to go ahead and try it out and develop your own match predictions. We will also provide information on where you can find websites that are currently using the technique in calculating their football betting predictions.
The analytical techniques described in this set of articles should help you to make a better choice about the match, or matches, that you are going to be betting on.
The Footyforecast Method
In this article we will be explaining how to use the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was initially created for the English Football Pools and tries to remove those matches that will not end in a draw, leaving you with a more targeted list of matches for picking your 8 from 11. The method started being used wat back in 1999 on the initial Footyforecast website (currently 1x2Monster. com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is explained in more detail in an another of our posts.
The Basic Principles
For each team on the coupon you need to work out the following criteria:
- Determine the number of points the team has won in the last X games – PW.
- Determine what is the maximum number of possible points the team could have won in the last X games – MP.
- Now you simply divide the total number of Points Won (PW) by the Max Points (MP) then multiply by 100. So its PW/MP * 100
- This will give you the forecast worth value.
In steps (1) and (2) above X could be all of the games played at home for the home team and al of the games played away for the away team. Alternatively you can have X as last X number of games they have played including both home and away games.
To put this into a formula to make it easier to understand it would look like this:
X = Number of games you have decided to base your prediction on
HomePoints = Number of points the home team have gained from the last X games.
AwayPoints = Number of points the away team have gained from the last X games.
HomeVal = (HomePoints / (3 * N)) * 100.
AwayVal = (AwayPoints/ (3 * N)) * 100.
ForecastVal = (HomeVa + (100 – AwayVal))/ 2.
So to determine what the possible outcome of a match could be based on the Footyforecast method the ForecastVal is now compared with the following table of values:
- A ForecastVal = 50 – A draw.
- A ForecastVal between 50 and 100 – Possible home win. With the higher probability the closer it is to 100.
- A ForecastVal between 0 and 50 – Possible away win. With the higher probability the closer the score is to 0
As you can see there are a couple of variables to to think about. For instance the number of matches to include in the calculation, it should be the same for both teams, and also whether you want to include all of the matches the teams have played instead of just the home or away matches respectively. Once you get the hang of the system this might be something you want to try and see which one gives you the best results.
By plotting the actual draws against the forecast it is possible to get 2 threshold values, one for the away wins and also one for the home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are the possible draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a ForecastVal of 40 or less for away wins and a ForecastVal of 60 or more for a home win. This would then imply that any type of match with a ForecastVal between 41 an 59 could be a draw.
With a bit of testing and careful tuning you will be able to get rid of a lot of the matches that will most likely not be draws and just leave yourself with a much shorter list to select your draws from.
<h2>Step By Step Example </h2>
The points for each time are the points acquired by the team for each of 4 matches. In reality it would be better to use more games when working out your ForcecastVal.
H4 = 3 (earliest match).
H3 = 1.
H2 = 1.
H1 = 0 (most recent match).
A4 = 1 (earliest match).
A3 = 3.
A2 = 0.
A1 = 3 (latest match).
Using the home games for the home team and away games for the away side:
HomePoints = (( 3 + 1 + 1 + 0)/ 12) * 100 = 42.
AwayPoints = (( 1 + 3 + 0 + 3)/ 12) * 100 = 59.
ForecastVal = (42 + (100 – 59))/ 2 = 42.
If our draw values are between 40 and 60 then this match between Man Utd and Liverpool will most likely end in a draw and if not a draw then an away win. This may be taken an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some of the bookies will accept as a bet.
<Start Making Your Own Football Predictions</h2>
So now you need to start using this outline and tweaking it to fit in with your results and your data until you get it where it is working consistently for you. Of course you might decide to use different values to those shown above in the example as by testing and recording your results you might be able to generate better values to use. You might also decide it is better to use all of the home and away games played by each team in your calculation of the ForecastVal instead of just the home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You might decide to have different limits compared to those I have shown above. A good idea I would recommend would be to plot the actual results of the matches in a spreadsheet or notepad, so you can keep a record and look back to see how well your calculations are doing.
If you are good with spreadsheets you could build some formulas that would do a lot of the calculations for you, saving you a bit of time. Or, if you’re lazy like me, you can simply go to 1x2Monster Top Ten Picks Page and use their football predictions tool.
They have 4 different statistical techniques are used to try and determine the outcome of each game played in each league. They also maintain a comprehensive record of how each of the techniques used in each game faired. Apart from how each football prediction performed within its own league they also have the league tables of exactly how each league has actually done in effectively predicting the outcomes of the matches. The league tables of prediction performance are produced for home win forecasts, draw forecasts, away win forecasts, and also for overall forecasts and are invaluable tools to a football punter when determining where to target their football betting predictions.