It seems to me that talking about FANTASY FOOTBALL is pre-mature right now, but I am assured by my readers who are die-hard Fantasy Geeks that it is never too early. I may not share their enthusiasm, but since I am always ready for DRAFT TALK, I bow to their logic. So let’s take an early peek at some NFL Rookies who you should be watching closely once Training Camps open. It is always a good thing to have a Rookie or two on your Fantasy Team, because each season some of them have a huge impact.

SAM BRADFORD/QB/RAMS    Stay away... far far away from BRADFORD. The RAMS are still going to be bad this season. I currently have them ranked as the worst team in the League at Power Ranking slot 32. He will fighting for his very health, never mind stats for your team. And who does he have for weapons to work with/ And who’s going to keep him upright? Let’s move along here, and if you touch him remember I warned you not to.

C.J. SPILLER/RB/RS/BILLS        This guy has the makings of a Fantasy League star written all over him. He is the explosive kind of player that give you points in every way possible. But he is headed to the wrong team, in the wrong city. He may all but disappear once the snow, sleet and cold blow in off Lake Eire in early November. He is also working behind an OL that has some nice young talent, but is not a finished product yet. I am additionally fearful that a desperate team will overuse/misuse a small framed speedster as a workhorse. Look how long it took the SAINTS to figure out they had to spread around 20 touches per game for REGGIE BUSH to become the pro weapon everyone thought he would be coming into the League. I am very skeptical of SPILLER’s overall Rookie season with this franchise. Fantasy buyer beware!

RYAN MATHEWS/RB/CHARGERS    I’d be very bullish on this guy if i had a Fantasy Team. He comes into a solid Offense with plenty of good vets to share the load with. But make no mistake, he should get plenty of touches. He was Drafted to be their primary RB, no mater what you hear/think about SPROLES. I think MATHEWS should get consideration in your TOP 50 player rankings.

JERMAINE GRESHAM/TE/BENGALS    I like his potential value very much, but the BENGALS as a team and organization always scare me. If CARSON PALMER is to resurface as a big time NFL QB he will need catches and TDs from GRESHAM. I’d expect him to start slowly, so he might be really solid as your back-up TE when he season starts. Then he might be your bell-cow later in the season. Watch how PALMER is doing during the Pre Season; in general and relative to using GRESHAM.

DEMARYIUS THOMAS/WR/BRONCOS        His job is to replace BRANDON MARSHALL, whether anyone will verbalize it or not, in Denver. But he comes out of a running Offense at GA TECH, and has little understanding of exact route running. He is a physical freak ranking just a tick below CALVIN JOHNSON (another ex-Yellow Jacket) in physical tools. He should have a monster career in the NFL. But I am leery of his impact in the NFL as a Rookie. If he is sitting there in a later round of your Fantasy Draft give him a thought. But don’t count on him early to carry your team.

DEZ BRYANT/WR/COWBOYS    I have no doubt he will have major impact this year, because I think he can be as good as IRVIN once was for the “BOYS. And you know JERRY will make sure WADE & JASON know he wants DEZ  to have star value ASAP. But Rookie receivers do’t always get it right away trying to figure out NFL secondaries. Don’t be taking this guy ahead of the elite veteran WR guys who are still in their prime.

TIM TEBOW/QB/BRONCOS    Long term JOSH McDANIELS has married his Coaching debut success to his ability to develop TIM into a starting NFL QB. But that is a multi-year project. If by any chance TEBOW sees the field for any significant playing time this season, it can only end up as a statistical disaster. Another guy who should not even be on your Draft Board.

JAHVID BEST/RB/RS/LIONS    The biggest thing to check out here is how healthy BEST is/stays once the pre-Season games start in August. The LIONS need his explosiveness on Offense as well as in the return game. If he is healthy he can be a big weapon for the LIONS and in a way that makes him super valuable in aFantasy League. He could have the highest overall Fantasy value of anyone from this past DRAFT.

DEXTER McCLUSTER/WR/RS/CHIEFS    Don’t fall in love with The Dexter too quickly. First off, I am worried whether the CHIEFS know how to use him properly or not. I have read they see him as a WR/RS not as a RB/RS. Big mistake. he was almost non-existent at Ole Mss as a WR. it wasn’t until NUTT finally had him running out of the backfield that he put up his big numbers. I am also worried about his small hands, never mind his teeny-tiny size. Before you slot him too high on your Draft Board, let’s see how he survives NFL hitting in August. And let’s see if HALEY seems to have a clue on how to use him to max effect.

JIMMY CLAUSEN/QB/PANTHERS        This is a tough call, because it is likely that the PANTHERS will try not to rush their future Franchise QB into a starting job. It is also true, despite what you may think, that the team does like MATT MOORE’s potential as an NFL starter. You probably aren’t aware that MOORE had a 98.5 Passer rating last season as a back-up and part time starter, with 8 TD, and only 2 INT. So it is entirely possible that CLAUSEN will ride the pines as a rookie unless MOORE falls on his face as a starter, and/or the season goes south with. Better make sure you do your pre-season homework before Drafting CLAUSEN only to see him with a clipboard most weekends.

TOBY GERHART/RB/VIKINGS    Please remember that I was very high on TOBY in my Prospect Rankings (No. 44, overall) going into the DRAFT. But I think his impact as a Rookie will be insignificant from a Fantasy standpoint. AP is still going to see most of the touches, especially in the Red Zone. It is also likely that a healthy (big assumption) ALBERT YONG, will indeed see significant time spelling PETERSON. GERHART will likely spend most of the 2010 season honing his pass-catching skills and pass-pro ability. He will also be asked to play Special Teams. I just don’t think he is going to get many points for you unless AP goes down for an extended period of time.

BEN TATE/RB/TEXANS    Neither STEVE SLATON, nor ARTHUR MOATS were able to average 4.0-ypc last year for the TEXANS. ARIAN FOSTER was the only RB to do so. So it would seem safe to assume that TATE, as a round 2 Pick will be given every chance to make a run for a key RB slot right away. TATE brings added value to the team in the passing game. He is a solid receiver out of the backfield and has some pass-pro ability. Those two items can allow him to see the playing field on more downs than any of the other RB candidates. He may have a very good chance to be a solid numbers guy for you, on a Play-Off contending team.

GOLDEN TATE/WR/RS/SEA HAWKS    He may have distinct value to you in the middle Rounds, but make sure you designate him for Special Teams work, de[ending upon your League rules. He’ll catch some balls coming out of the slot, but he may get more action, and better results returning Punts and Kicks at least as a Rookie. So, once again, my advice is do not take him too high.

JORDAN SHIPLEY/WR/RS/BENGALS    Another BENGALS Rookie who should get a very fair shot to see significant playing time as a Rookie. He could be a solid slot-receiver option with his quickness and sure hands. He is also dangerous as a Return Specialist, where the BENGALS were lacking last year. Don’t count on him giving you much as a Punt Returner, unless something happens to former Longhorns mate QUAN COSBY, who tied for 4th in the NFL as a Punt Returner with an 11.9-ypr average. But the team averaged less than 20-yards per Kick-Off Return. Watch the pre-season stats for SHIPLEY as a receiver and a KR option to see how much, and where the BENGALS are using him.

AARON HERNANDEZ/TE/H-B/PATRIOTS    This guy clearly demonstrated at Florida last season that he has a talent/skill package that can make him a playmaker in the NFL.The catch will be that LITTLE BILL will have to develop a way to use an H-B player in his Offensive scheme. My guess is that BELICHICK and BILL O’BRIEN will find ways to get HERNANDEZ into the offensive flow of things to give TOM TERRIFIC another weapon to work with. And the chance may come right away, because WELKER is going to miss part of the early season rehabbing his knee, no matter what you see of him prancing around in the OTAs. The outlook for AARON  as a Rookie is clouded, but don’t sleep on this guy.

JOHN SKELTON/QB/CARDINALS    Do not touch this guy as a Rookie. I watched him carefully at the SHRINE Week in Orlando and despite a great upside he is raw and inconsistent. Throws he got away with at Fordham will be picks in the NFL. He will only see the field if LEINART & ANDERSON are total failures, and that would mean the team was buried in the NFC West basement. Don’t even put his name of your Draft Board, no matter how many players you list.

ANTHONY DIXON/RB/49‘ERS    This guy has Fantasy potential, because he might be used as a Red Zone weapon and become a TD machine. But if that transpires the team might have a very unhappy FRANK GORE on their hands. It will be very important to watch the Niners pre-season to see how he is being used. Also check the Internet to see what local Bay Area sports writers are saying about how the team plans to use him.

    That pretty much covers it for now with many of the potential impact Rookies, and Fantasy non-contributors as far a I can see right now. 2010 was not a big DRAFT for impact, skill position players. But as always happens, there will be surprises even from a handful of  undrafted players. We’ll make sure to revisit this list, and add to it, once we’ve seen a couple of pre-season games.

    So now you have a reason to watch extra pre-season games this year. That exercise should be a must for the serious Fantasy Owner every year. You can never assume that that last year’s player performances is an exact indicator of what lies ahead for the upcoming season. And in some instances you can get a read  on some players who will see a reversal of fortune in their play from one season to the next.

    And now let me present to you my Top 3 Fantasy selections for my team, which is meant purely for my visual pleasure only, not competitive purposes. My Fantasy team can pretty much score at will.

08/08/2009    Time is of the essence, so here are my top Fantasy Players, effective with the opening of NFL Training Camps. It will be up to you to watch their health status through the Pre-Season. It should also be noted that as the Fantasy world expands more and more Leagues are developing more complex scoring systems. My list below is based on two primary factors: recordable stats like Yards Per Game and Points scored. If your League gets much more detailed than that you’d better subscribe to a strictly Fantasy info service.

1. 1)ADRIAN PETERSON/RB/VIKES    He gets you yards and TDs, and lots of them.
   

2. 2) MICHAEL TURNER/RB/FALCONS    Ditto, especially with FALCS WR issues right now.
   

3. 3) MAURICE JONES-DREW/RB/JAX   He is the man now in JAX and his pounding style works well in Red Zone.
   

4. 4) STEVEN JACKSON/RB/RAMS   He has the whole package and a beefed up OL to run behind as SPAGS installs ball-control O.
   

5. 5) MATT FORTE/RB/BEARS   His catches may go down, but his rushing YPC should go up once CUTLER loosens up the D.
   

6. 6) ANDRE JOHNSON/WR/TEXANS    The best all-around WR in the NFL with the stats to prove it. A beast when he smells the end zone.
   

7. 7) LARRY FITZGERALD/WR/CARDS   Just a whisker behind AJ. He may hit 100+ again if WELLS doesn’t revive running attack.
   

8. 8) DREW BREES/QB/SAINTS    With this O scheme, his receiving corps and a weak D, he will put up huge stats again.
   

9. 9) STEVE SLATON/RB/TEXANS   I was worried because of his size, but he added 15 pounds of muscle. No one to steal his carries on roster.
   

10. 10) LT TOMLINSON/RB/CHARGERS   Poised for a comeback year. Won’t lead League in touches, but will get the ball in Red Zone.
    

11. 11) CHRIS JOHNSON/RB/TITANS   He is so fast it is scary. TITANS will run 65% of time w/ him leading the way.
    

12. 12) DeANGELO WILLIAMS/RB/PANTHERS  Only 2 things may hold him back. HIs OL has no depth, STEWART must get some carries.
    

13. 13) TOM BRADY/QB/PATRIOTS       Could be scary good. He is super motivated after missing last year; weapons are good and numerous.
    

14. 14) CLINTON PORTIS/RB/SKINS   Never count this tough/versatile guy out. He will grind yards and get you some TDs.
    

15. 15) PEYTON MANNING/QB/COLTS   Unless BROWN runs wild, PEYTON will have to carry the team, which means huge numbers.
    

16. 16) FRANK GORE/RB/49‘ers   Lack of big time QB means lots of rushing yards for FRANK.  He catches well to boot.
    

17. 17) BRANDON JACOBS/RB/GIANTS   With WARD gone it is JACOBS team. The only concern is his annual injuries.
    

18. 18) RANDY MOSS/WR/PATRIOTS   He is looking forward to deep throws from BRADY. Remember his 2007 season stats?
    

19. 19) REGGIE WAYNE/WR/COLTS   With Marvin gone, and running game questions, it is time for REGGIE to be the man.
    

20. 20) STEVE SMITH/WR/PANTHERS   They intend to run a lot, but when they pass this is the man. Big plays are his specialty.
    

21. 21) RONNIE BROWN/RB/DOLPHINS   He probably loses his Wildcat job, but he will carry the bulk of the running load.
    

22. 22) BRIAN WESTBROOK/RB/EAGLES   Injuries are the only question on BRIAN. He is the man, but watch the injury report.
    

23. 23) CALVIN JOHNSON/WR/LIONS   Someone will get him the ball (STAFFORD/CULPEPPER) and he will make big plays.
    

24. 24) MARION BARBER/RB/COWBOYS   He will share carries w/JONES, but no none is better than him inside the 10 yard line.
    

25. 25) GREG JENNINGS/WR/PACKERS   He should be ready to emerge as an elite receiver, & his QB should still be improving.
    

26. 26) DWAYNE BOWE/WR/CHIEFS   He is one of the best, young emerging WR in the League. CASSEL will look to him first.
    

27. 27) RODDY WHITE/WR/FALCONS   Once he settles back in, he should continue his growth as RYAN’s main man.
    

28. 28) KURT WARNER/QB/CARDS   My guess is they will have to pass a lot to win and he has FITZ, BOLDIN & BREASTON to chuck it to.
    

29. 29) TERRELL OWENS/WR/BILLS   A prideful T.O. will want to put up big numbers. If they open up the attack he should.
    

30. 30) KEVIN SMITH/RB/LIONS   He almost ran for 1,000 yds as a Rookie. He should only improve in a ball control O scheme.
    

31. 31) RYAN GRANT/RB/PACKERS   After a holdout he was injured in ’08, but if healthy he is perfect compliment to  passing game.
    

32. 32) LARRY JOHNSON/RB/CHIEFS   They need a running game to take pressure off of CASSEL, and LJ will get plenty of carries.
    

33. 33) DERRICK WARD/RB/BUCS   They will want to pound the rock, and if he is healthy (big ?) his OL can open the holes for him.
    

34. 34) ANQUAN BOLDIN/WR/CARDS   I worry about his psyche because of contract issues, but he is a premier receiver.
    

35. 35) PHILLIP RIVERS/QB/CHARGERS  He is accepted leader of this team & his numbers are growing each year.
    

36. 36) GIANTS-D   With off-season additions and OSI on a mission after injury this unit could be dominating.
    

37. 37) MARQUES COLSTON/WR/SAINTS  BREES needs a No. 1 option & this big guy still has scary potential.
    

38. 38) ANTONIO GATES/TE/CHARGERS   The big guy should be back healthy and he is a favorite target of RIVERS when on the grass.
    

39. 39) DALLAS CLARK/TE/COLTS   Another guy who will see his workload increase, if only he can stay healthy for 16 games.
    

40. 40) LEON WASHINGTON/RB/RS/JETS   He may not lead the team in touches, but his big-play potential is key to this ranking.
    

41. 41) AARON RODGERS/QB/PACKERS   Had a great first season as a starter & logic says he will be even better.
    

42. 42) TONY GONZALEZ/TE/FALCONS   With all the problems at WR TONY could be RYAN’s new best friend w/ big numbers.
    

43. 43) JASON WITTEN/TE/COWBOYS   Now that T.O. is not around to yell for the ball, ROMO may throw WITTEN well over 100 balls.
    

44. 44) DONOVAN McNABB/QB/EAGLES   He’s the leader of a quality team with lots of pieces, if not stars, to work with.  
    

45. 45) ROB BIRONAS/K/TITANS   Gotta have a K at some point. He has a booming, accurate leg & gets lots of chances.
    

46. 46) KNOWSHON MORENO/RB/BRONCOS  He is the next LT, and could be big for you, if he signs a contract soon enough.
    

47. 47) SANTONIO HOLMES/WR/STEELERS   He seems to be on the verge of a big leap as BIG BEN’s go-to guy. See his Play-Off numbers.
    

48. 48) CHRIS COOLEY/TE/REDSKINS   He has become a superior dump and run receiver for CAMPBELL, and he is big in Red Zone.
    

49. 49) FELIX JONES/RB/RS/COWBOYS   If he is used as a RS, as well as RB, his speed and elusiveness should provide big chunks of yardage.
    

50. 50) GREG OLSEN/TE/BEARS   Hey can’t run all the time and with marginal WR talent he has a chance to be a CUTLER favorite.
    

    This list is missing some big names, because I am uncomfortable about their  current status. BRANDON MARSHALL is more interested in exiting Denver than he is playing.  ROMO  has good career numbers, but he may be target challenged. JAY CUTLER’s numbers should drop because DA BEARS are still a run-first team. THOMAS JONES will lose carries to Rookie SHONN GREENE. I had MCHAEL CRABTREE in the mix originally, but his hold-out looks to get worse before it gets better. REGGIE BUSH is still icing his repaired knee. And on it goes...

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